Optimal investment under multi-factor stochastic volatility

We consider a model for multivariate intertemporal portfolio choice in complete and incomplete markets with a multi-factor stochastic covariance matrix of asset returns. The optimal investment strategies are derived in closed form. We estimate the model parameters and illustrate the optimal investment based on two stock indices: S&P500 and DAX. It is also shown that the model satisfies several stylized facts well known in the literature. We analyse the welfare losses due to suboptimal investment strategies and we find that investors who invest myopically, ignore derivative assets, model volatility by one factor and ignore stochastic covariance between asset returns can incur significant welfare losses.     

IS MARKET‐ORIENTED REFORM PRODUCING A ‘TWO‐TRACK’ EUROPE? EVIDENCE FROM ELECTRICITY AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS

ABSTRACT: The European Commission has formally recognized that adequate provision of basic household services, including energy, communications, water and transport, is key to ensuring equity, social cohesion and solidarity. Yet little research has been done on the impact of the reform of these services in this regard. This article offers an innovative way to explore such questions by analyzing and contrasting stated and revealed preferences on citizen satisfaction with and expenditure on two services, telecommunications and electricity, in two large countries, Spain and the UK. We find evidence that in telecommunications, but not in electricity, reform has led to a ‘two‐track’ Europe, where citizens who are elderly, not working or the less‐educated behave differently in the market, with the result that they are less satisfied with these services than their younger, working, better‐educated, counterparts.     

Persistent voting decisions in shareholder meetings

This study examined the determinants of voting decisions in shareholder meetings, with a special focus on voting persistence. The data captured votes on managerial proposals in shareholder meetings held by U.S. banks between 2003 and 2013. The dynamic panel data were analyzed using robust two‐step system generalized method of moments estimation (GMM) with orthogonal deviations. The lagged voting decision was a significant factor in explaining subsequent voting decisions. This finding provides evidence of voting persistence. Although persistence is a prominent topic in behavioral economics, studies have tended to focus on buying, consumption, and investment decisions. Persistence in voting decisions at the corporate level has been underexplored, so this article contributes to the behavioral economics literature.     

Detection of false investment strategies using unsupervised learning methods

In this paper we address the problem of selection bias under multiple testing in the context of investment strategies. We introduce an unsupervised learning algorithm that determines the number of effectively uncorrelated trials carried out in the context of a discovery. This estimate is critical for computing the familywise false positive probability, and for filtering out false investment strategies.     

Comovement among returns of the private Chilean pension system

Abstract

The measurement of comovement among economic variables is key in several areas of economics and finance. This article examines the comovement among Pension Fund Administrators (AFPs) in the Chilean private pension system from 2005 to 2016. We use several statistical methods to assess the comovement among the returns during this period. We found evidence of strong comovement among the returns of all AFPs; the higher the percentage of risk rate of the investment instrument, the higher the comovement was. The introduction of a new AFP in 2010 did not change the comovement patterns. The comovement analysis study shows that the quality attributes of the products offered by the AFPs are homogeneous, supporting the idea that concentrated markets with homogeneous products could incentivize tacit collusive behavior, which could distort the functioning of the pension market, thereby affecting the aggregate well-being of workers.     

Building,coding and programming 3D models via a visual programming environment

This paper presents the findings of a study conducted in the state-funded Infant, Primary and Secondary School Santísima Trinidad in Salamanca. The main objectives of the research were, to evaluate the use of the visual programming environment, Lego Education WeDo, in natural science and to know the benefits of the use of this tool to teach abstract concepts, solve problems and motivate students. In order to achieve these objectives, we used the case study method since we focused on individuals who represented the phenomenon of our interest, and explored and investigated in depth the phenomenon in its natural context bounded by time and space. In the research were involved a teacher and fifty-two students of 4th grade of primary education. The study found that the project developed was effective to help students to achieve the learning objectives of the unit, and also to begin building, coding and programming 3D models. The research showed the teacher’ fundamental role as a guide and students’ active role as builders, programmers, or presenters. There were evidences of the possibilities offered to acquire the skills of critical thinking, creative thinking, problem solving, reflection, collaboration, communication, and time management. Due to the positive results obtained in this study, it is recommended to incorporate computational thinking in primary education and in core content areas since it is fundamental in the current society.     

Estimating the long-run impact of forest fires on the eucalyptus timber supply in Galicia,Spain

Using annual data, we have estimated the timber harvest of eucalyptus in the region of Galicia (Spain). The explanatory variables considered were price, pulp exports, and salvage timber. The latter variable was used as a proxy for forest fires. The problems related to spurious regression were addressed by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and confidence intervals were constructed using the bootstrap technique. The results indicate that pulp exports have a positive effect on the harvested timber volume. Moreover, we find that salvage timber positively affects the timber supply. This result indicates that there is no substitution between salvage timber and non-damaged timber. It also suggests that the natural expansion of the eucalyptus in Galicia compensates for the destruction caused by forest fires, avoiding supply shortages. On the other hand, and according to the economic law of supply, the timber price shows a positive effect.     

Genetic multi-model composite forecast for non-linear prediction of exchange rates

The existence of non-linear deterministic structures in the dynamics of exchange rates has already been amply demonstrated. In this paper, we attempt to exploit these non-linear structures employing forecasting techniques, such as Genetic Programming and Neural Networks, in the specific case of the Yen/US$ and Pound Sterling/US$ exchange rates. Forecasts obtained from genetic programming and neural networks are then genetically fused to verify whether synergy provides an improvement in the predictions. Our analysis considers both point predictions and the anticipating of either depreciations or appreciations.First version received: July 2003 / Final version received: June 2004We wish to thank Pacific Exchange Rate Service for providing us the data.